andrewrgross

joined 2 years ago
[–] andrewrgross@slrpnk.net 1 points 2 years ago

This feels like a bunch of Bush era talking points.

They aren't orcs. There's this notion that our adversaries are unable to demonstrate the self control they need to make environments safe to raise kids but possess motivation for self destruction that is inexaustible.

After exclusively putting more and more weight on the boot on their collective neck with nothing buts decades of successive failure, let's try something else.

For those unmotivated by Christian mercy, I suggest what I am going to call "Machiavellian kindness".

What if their appetite for death is actually weaker than advertised? What if we try to give them a taste of comfort and security with the diabolical awareness that people who become accustomed to weekends of rest and full bellies, who watch their kids reach milestones lose their edge. They get gluttonous and lazy. They become attached to material comforts and the expectations of retirement and grandkids.

Perhaps my cynical machinations are too wicked. But in desperate times when all else has failed, I think they've given us no other choice.

[–] andrewrgross@slrpnk.net -4 points 2 years ago (3 children)

From the position trying to secure the best strategic outcome, though, what does that tell us? That sounds like a lot of opinions on the past, but what guidance do you take from all that?

Direct confrontation still fulfills their strategic objectives, and presents a nearly unwinnable situation. Instead, what would limit their willingness and ability to fight?

One thing would be ending our support for Israel's wildly unpopular violent occupation. I hear people say that the Houthis are just cynically seizing on this morally and emotionally powerful cause to maintain popularity among the people of Yemen. And even if that's true, it still serves our strategic interest to take that valuable asset away from them.

[–] andrewrgross@slrpnk.net 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I hate Newsom. But you're right, Biden looks like he's going down in flames. I think he's counting on Trump going to jail, because head-to-head, unless something changes, Trump is getting set up to coast to victory. It's horrifying to watch.

[–] andrewrgross@slrpnk.net -1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I don't understand what part of that you're scoffing at.

[–] andrewrgross@slrpnk.net -2 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (7 children)

I think your comment illustrates one of the biggest problems with our foreign policy.

We appear to have completely lost our ability to think laterally or strategically. I get why my comment seems crazy when you think our only options are "ATTACK" and "surrender".

We need a strategic solution. The Houthis WANT a direct confrontation. They've said so, and their behavior is consistent with that. To figure out how to get them to stop, we need to ask: why on god's green earth do a group of Yemeni rebels WANT a fight with the United States??

The short answer is that they hate us deeply for the incredible violence and destruction we inflicted on them and continue to inflict on them and the people they sympathize with. And we've destroyed so much of Yemen that they have nothing to lose. We turned it into a hellscape wasteland, so there is nothing more we can really threaten them with, and dying a proud and defiant death is pretty much the best offer on the menu. Plus, they know that if we fight, it'll hurt us badly, just like all the last few wars have. We'll spend too much, probably send troops eventually, and ultimately leave having accomplished nothing. And any surviving militants will declare victory and rule over ashes. Afghanistan provided a very appealing model of how to defeat the US.

So, strategically, what if... they had a reason to not want to die? What if ... I don't know, we negotiated with partners in the region to help them grow some crops, and maybe provide them with a new security arrangement where we don't just sweep in every 10 years and light all their children and grandparents on fire? And concurrently, what if we tried to find ways to reduce their access to weapons?

Violence is not going to work. The region is spiraling out of control, and blowing everything up is easier for all the desperate radicals we've created across multiple nations than protecting our shipping lanes is for us. If violence no longer carries deterrence, it's only utility is extermination. And if we embrace extermination, we radicalize more people. You can't eradicate out of that situation, and trying just turns you into another of history's great monsters.

It's bad. We need to rediscover the concept of strategy.

[–] andrewrgross@slrpnk.net 13 points 2 years ago (1 children)

This is so, SO hard to read. It's just brutal.

[–] andrewrgross@slrpnk.net 2 points 2 years ago

It seems pretty reliable that the hostages are dead.

The best case scenario is that Hamas is lying about the cause, and the IDF didn't kill them. That still means that the military campaign is obviously coming at the cost of these people's lives.

Netanyahu can save the hostages or water war, but not both. That's what a hostages situation is. He chose war, and the hostages are going to die if an outside force doesn't intervene.

[–] andrewrgross@slrpnk.net 3 points 2 years ago

This, x1000. It didn't used to be the case, but something snapped after Oct. 7. Hostages used to be famously sacred to Israelis, but something big changed. The hostages and their families have been treated terribly by the government.

For those unaware, Israeli soldiers executed three unarmed hostages who escaped from their captors about three weeks ago because they mistook them for unarmed Palestinians. Yeah.

[–] andrewrgross@slrpnk.net 19 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

For some comparison, here are the headlines from BBC:

"Israel Gaza war: Hamas video claims to show dead hostages"

... and Times of Israel:

"Hamas airs propaganda clip of hostages Noa Argamani, Yossi Sharabi, Itay Svirsky"

The Messenger's headline is trash. It's so sensationalized that I don't even know what it's talking about.

[–] andrewrgross@slrpnk.net -5 points 2 years ago

Good for them. It makes me sad that I think the US has spent all its credibility, and probably won't be any use to them. At this point, I really don't want us involved in the dispute, even though I wish Taiwan success protecting their democracy.

[–] andrewrgross@slrpnk.net 14 points 2 years ago

I think this is an increasingly widely held attitude. Everyone in Israel says that when this ends, he's done. He's been facing serious corruption charges and staying PM by getting support from the far right has been all that's kept him out of jail.

It seems like many people have observed that if Netanyahu believes that he's going to jail when the war ends, the war will never end.

I also think he's counting on Trump winning in November, and then the media will stop paying attention to Israel because of the insane shit that will be happening in the US.

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