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Agreed, but it's 50/50 as to whom. They can't even afford to turn the keys at this point, lest that unmaintained shit blow up before it leaves Russian airspace -- or, more likely, doesn't even get off its Russian launchpad.
If he could have, he would have, but Putin knows if he even tries he unleashes full MAD.
I'm not saying he won't or never would, just saying that for all the threats and saber-rattling, he'll only do it when he himself is already damned.
If they use nuclear weapons, it will end in one of two ways.
Escalation to full scale nuclear exchange. Putin dies or has to live in the aftermath of a nuclear holocaust.
The rest of the world saying "that's enough". Nobody in power wants using nukes to be normalized. It's so profoundly destabilizing to the status quo that everyone sees it as a threat given it will inevitably lead to escalation. Every intelligence agency in the world will be making phone calls, offering sweet deals, and promising support to unhappy, powerful people in Russia to deal with the "Putin" problem. Ideological enemies will work together to eliminate this threat to their stability.
It's a dark version of funny thinking about the nuclear weapon deterrents.
Everyone wants them to force their way to the big boy table, they're incredibly expensive, and using them is self defeating.
Also interesting how we spend a bunch of time, money, meddling, and military power on preventing proliferation, we are the only country that ever used them, twice.
Imagine being Truman and authorizing a weapon that was just invented that the scientists all regretted, conveyed they would be unimaginably powerful and at the same time, they had no idea if it would work or not.
Then after the first one, Japan doesn't quit and you say, do it again.
I'm not sure if anyone has the balls to push that button now under modern circumstances.
When you stop and think about the amount of money just the US has spent on maintaining (barely) a nuclear arsenal I think, our species is stupid.
Scary thoughts. I don't even think scientists realized the full extent of the device potential. Much less someone like Truman without an extensive science background. Even though they talked about the destructive potential, actually grasping it as a reality wasn't comprehensible.