Anyone else feel like this is a powder-keg waiting to blow up? 🙋♂️
this post was submitted on 24 Jan 2024
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No?
Like at worst Israel will ignore it and keep going on. At best we’ll probably get some sanctions. The US will ensure no real harm comes to Israel.
Some countries nearby might use the genocide to rile up their population, but too many are complacent that it’s really only going to be Iran acting on their own if they do, so they won’t.
I think from a global general-population perspective, if things don't go the right way there are going to be some very angry and disillusioned people. People who are already teetering on the brink of going from abject frustration to full-on rage. For one side, nothing short of a cease-fire will do (as a bare minimum); for the other side, anything imposed on them is a crime against humanity.
I feel like UN/ICJ know this, so they'll hedge their bets and swing for the middle. No matter which way it goes, some chunk of the general population is going to be let-down. Again.
Not really, it's just going to be a strongly worded letter with no real enforcement mechanism.
Guilty.
Israel is not a signatory to the Rome Statute, which established the International Criminal Court (ICC). So it is not clear how judicially valid the decision can be.
While Israel is UN member, and technically by extension is a member of ICJ too, but so is US. And we know that US does not recognize ICJ decision against US as valid.
Israel did ratify the Genocide convention though; as a result
The Genocide Convention authorizes the mandatory jurisdiction of the ICJ to adjudicate disputes
The fact that ICJ adopted the convention at later time does not necessarily mean that Israel gave ICJ right to judge it. Israel signed the convention, not the ICJ.
Whether they have jurisdiction is part of the case. South Africa argued that they have standing and the ICJ likely has jurisdiction because both countries are parties to the Genocide Convention. The ICJ can't really enforce a ruling anyway. Israel's taking it so seriously because it'll have an enormous political impact.
This episode of the New York Times' The Daily goes over the various nuances of the international law, the obligations and responsibilities of various nations / states / actors, etc. And it doesn't matter if Israel agrees with it or not, they are absolutely subject to the obligation to protect civilians.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
South Africa’s foreign minister, Naledi Pandor, is flying to The Hague to be present on Friday when the international court of justice (ICJ) delivers its highly anticipated verdict on South Africa’s request for an interim ruling in its genocide case against Israel.
The ruling, if granted, would probably take the form of an order to Israel to announce a ceasefire in Gaza and allow more UN humanitarian aid into the country.
The announcement of Pandor’s travel plans does not necessarily mean South Africa knows the verdict will be in its favour, but does reflect a confidence in Pretoria that their request is going to be met at least partially.
A judgment on the merits of the South African claim that Israel is committing genocide under the 1948 Geneva convention is many years off, but the ICJ, the UN’s highest court, has powers to issue the equivalent of an interim injunction.
Benjamin Netanyahu also issued a formal statement designed to reassure the court that Israel was acting in self-defence after the 7 October Hamas assaults.
Provisional measures have recently been provided in cases involving the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the treatment of the Rohingya people in Myanmar.
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