this post was submitted on 05 Feb 2024
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[–] empireOfLove2@lemmy.dbzer0.com 21 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (9 children)

Evergrande was not a triggering event, it was an inevitable consequence. The CCP's fiscal policy has driven "growth at all costs" for over 40 years now and they are running out of free runway. Their "private" sector (a bit of a misnomer considering how government-driven basically every company is over there) acquiesced to these government demands for growth, especially in real estate, long after traditional market fundamentals were saying to slow down, and now those "private" companies are saddled with investments without any way to make money off them post-pandemic. And their markets have realized that before the party did.

The party is only just now waking up to the fact that they can't keep hitting GDP growth targets by pumping stimulus into their businesses and that their economy needs to begin maturing into a more stable form. We will not see a real "collapse" like some doomsday fans love to parrot, but there is a very large correction about to happen to their economic projections, in both GDP and demographics.

[–] hark@lemmy.world 12 points 2 years ago (6 children)

"Growth at all costs" is the fiscal policy of the US as well, what's the difference between the US and China in this regard? If it's a matter of government intervention, let's not forget the ridiculous amount of money pumped into the market thanks to actions from the fed. The interest rate has been increased after such a long time of near-zero rates, but there is already begging for rate cuts.

[–] TranscendentalEmpire@lemm.ee 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

If it's a matter of government intervention, let's not forget the ridiculous amount of money pumped into the market thanks to actions from the fed.

It's more of a matter of where the government decided to put its money in the first place. 70% of China's GDP is powered by its real estate market, which eventually lead to an over glut of housing.

You can only cook the books for so long before the whiplash of supply and demand takes effect. They have 50 million extra homes, and are still dumping money into building more. It's not going to be pretty when 70% of your economy catches up with reality.

Government spending is great, it just needs to be spent on things that people actually want/need. Not just pumped into the easiest sector that makes number go up.

[–] hark@lemmy.world 1 points 2 years ago

70% of China's GDP is powered by its real estate market?! Do you have a source on that? This says it's about 20-30% https://www.axios.com/2023/10/11/chart-chinas-real-estate-struggles

which funnily enough, sounds about what it is for Canada, which I could see also imploding from its over-reliance on real estate.

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